Predicting the 2023 Oscars

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

Every year, the narrative for Best Picture seems to pit a technically-proficient “important” movie against a sentimental movie that people love unabashedly. In 2020 and 2022, I made the mistake of predicting the important movie would win. Not anymore. So this year, I’m predicting that Best Picture will go to Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s dominated many of the precursor awards, minus the BAFTAs, and has the cross-section of representational politics appeal, box office success, and a passionate Twitter fandom. I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t maintain its momentum to win big on Sunday night, although if there’s one movie that could upset it, it’ll be All Quiet on the Western Front, which is widely loved by the Academy and won the BAFTAs. Avatar: The Way of Water is far and away the best film in this group, but there’s no chance it’ll win.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Actor

Austin Butler for Elvis

Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser for The Whale

Paul Mescal for Aftersun

Bill Nighy for Living

A part of me still thinks that Brendan Fraser will ride the media narrative of his “comeback” (despite his working over the past several years, just not in super high-profile roles) and win the Oscar, but I never discount a biopic performance, especially one that is as enormously entertaining as Austin Butler’s in Elvis. As well, Elvis was a big commercial hit, especially with older audiences (who make up the majority of the Academy). If they gave Rami Malek an Oscar for his Freddie Mercury impression in 2019, then it stands to reason an actor giving a better performance as a more famous musician would win. If Brendan Fraser wins, I won’t be surprised, but I think Austin Butler’s Elvis performance will rightly win the day.

Will Win: Austin Butler for Elvis

Should Win: Austin Butler for Elvis

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett for Tár

Ana de Armas for Blonde

Andrea Riseborough for To Leslie

Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Everything Everywhere All at Once stands to be the big winner of the night and Michelle Yeoh will likely make history as the first East Asian woman to win Best Actress. She’s a great actress and movie star, and she’s good in the film, so I won’t begrudge her the win. If I had to choose, I’d pick Cate Blanchett for her excellent work in Tár. There’s a strange narrative around Blanchett being one of our great subtle performers, which seems to miss the mark. She’s a hammy theatrical actor, and Tár gives her strong material to work with, but there’s hardly anything subtle about how she tackles performances. That’s not a problem unless you suggest she’s a Julliette Binoche or Isabelle Huppert-level actor—that’s when I get annoyed at critics misidentifying her strengths. Overall, this category is quite weak this year, and certainly doesn’t capture “best” with the absence of Mia Goth for Pearl—a performance that most critics agree is among the year’s best.

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Cate Blanchett for Tár

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson for The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway

Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Ke Huy Quan is riding a comeback narrative, which should peak with an Oscar win for Everything Everywhere All at Once. There will be some tears, some warm references to Steven Spielberg, and everyone in the theatre will give a standing ovation to the one-time Short Round. Quan is the best part of the movie, so I’m happy if he wins, especially as this category is pretty lacklustre otherwise. If there’s a dark horse here, I’d assume it’s one of the men from The Banshees of Inisherin, but I think this category is about the safest lock of the night.

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau for The Whale

Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All at Once

The winner here will be one of the two veteran actors nominated for roles that had no right to earn a nomination. Sorry, Angela Bassett and Jamie Lee Curtis, you are both great actors, you both have had legendary careers, but I truly don’t understand how the mourning mom in a Marvel movie and the bitchy tax lady in a lame multiverse melodrama are Oscar-worthy roles. Nevertheless, clearly the Academy wants to honour these women who’ve never won an Oscar. I happen to think that Angela Bassett will win for Wakanda Forever, as it at least has an “Oscar moment,” with her tearful speech about the loss of her family members, but Jamie Lee Curtis has won some of the precursors, so don’t be shocked if she wins it. This is another lacklustre assortment of nominations, so Kerry Condon’s strong performance in the so-so The Banshees of Inisherin is probably the most deserving winner.

Will Win: Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Should Win: Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Director

Todd Field for Tár

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Östlund for Triangle of Sadness

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

This year, best directing will go to the most directed film. Thus, Daniels will win for Everything Everywhere All at Once. The former music video directors (who still direct their narrative features like they’re music videos) will win for juggling the various timelines and coaxing the heartfelt performances out of legendary actors for their hit film. If anyone has a chance of upsetting them, it would be Steven Spielberg, who has only won twice and who is mining autobiography in truly fascinating ways with The Fabelmans. The fact that neither Joseph Kosinski nor James Cameron are nominated in this category, after literally bringing theatrical distribution back to life with their Best Picture nominees, is absurd.

Will Win: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Best Writing, Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin by Martin McDonagh

Everything Everywhere All at Once by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

The Fabelmans by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner

Tár by Todd Field

Triangle of Sadness by Ruben Östlund

Do you think the Academy will go all in on the Everything Everywhere All at Once victory lap, or will they spread the love? If they’re spreading the love, I wouldn’t be surprised to see The Banshees of Inisherin win here, as the Academy clearly loves Martin McDonagh, and that film will likely be shut out in other categories. But I expect the band wagon to keep rolling through these major categories, so Everything Everywhere All at Once will likely win. Of the films nominated, The Fabelmans and Tár are the best written. I give the slight edge to Tár, as the screenplay is doing a lot of the heavy lifting with that film, while The Fabelmans is more about the direction.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

Should Win: Tár by Todd Field

Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front by Edward Berger, Lesley Patterson & Ian Stokell

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery by Rian Johnson

Living by Kazuo Ishiguro

Top Gun: Maverick by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie, story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks

Women Talking by Sarah Polley

Women Talking is a movie that seems to exist to win an Oscar like this, so I expect Sarah Polley to pick up the film’s lone win in this category, as it has at some of the precursor awards. I would not be surprised by a left-field win for either All Quiet on the Western Front (despite the fact that there is a guarantee not a single nominee actually read the screenplay, since it’s in German) or Glass Onion, but the safe bet is Women Talking. I would like to see Top Gun: Maverick upset, not so much because it’s an exceptional screenplay, but because I think it’s the type of film that ought to be rewarded more in this category. It nails the conventional action movie beats in ways that are directly informed by the strong story on the page.

Will Win: Women Talking by Sarah Polley

Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie, story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Elvis

Empire of Light

Tár

Dread-filled war movies often win this category and the Academy is high on All Quiet on the Western Front, so expect the gritty, desaturated trench scenes to lift it over the top in cinematography here. For my part, I recall the shots of Cate Blanchett conducting the orchestra better than flashier shots in other films, so I’d reward Tár.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win: Tár

Best Costume Design

Babylon

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Do not be surprised if the ostentatiousness of Babylon wins or if Black Panther: Wakanda Forever nets Ruth E. Carter another Oscar, but I generally look at the Best Costume Design category as going to historical films that have flashy costumes and encompass several changes in time and place. Thus, Elvis ticks all the boxes. Simply recreating Elvis Presley’s iconic on-stage outfits should do the trick.

Will Win: Elvis

Should Win: Elvis

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Elvis

Top Gun: Maverick

War movie or action movie: which will it be? I think the sound of aircraft racing through the sky will overtake the sound of bombs blowing holes in the mud, and Top Gun: Maverick will win. But if All Quiet on the Western Front wins in this category, it might presage a stronger showing for that war film. I think Avatar: The Way of Water should win simply for inventing so many underwater sounds that I’d never heard before. The Batman also had impressive sound, particularly in the mid-film car chase.

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Flashiest editing usually wins. Here, the flashy winner will be the Best Picture winner, Everything Everywhere All at Once, which juggles multiple timelines and versions of the characters. The film is hyperactive, but the editing is pretty coherent throughout, so credit to the editors. For my money, I’d rather the other hyperactively edited film won. Elvis is a whirlwind of cuts, but the emotional effect and surprisingly comprehensible nature of the editing is a minor wonder. This isn’t the kind of botch job people call it—it’s actually savvy, momentum-building editing that breathes new life into biopic cliches.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Elvis

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Top Gun: Maverick

This ought to be a no-brainer. Avatar: The Way of Water has the greatest visual effects of any movie ever made. It ought to win. If it doesn’t, we riot.

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

The Whale

Which ostentatious makeup worked best for you? Making handsome actors look haggard and on death’s door? Making a superhero movie look like a beauty pageant? Transforming a former Hollywood hunk into a 600 lb behemoth? Making Colin Farrell look like Robert De Niro as The Penguin? Turning Tom Hanks into a human embodiment of a penguin? I could definitely see The Whale win here, as it’s the most aggressive use of makeup. However, the general love for Elvis combined with its transformations of both Hanks and Butler in the later scenes will carry it. In terms of most impressive, The Batman probably had the best makeup. I couldn’t tell it was Colin Farrell at all.

Will Win: Elvis

Should Win: The Batman

Best Music, Original Song

“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman

“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Life Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Naatu Naatu” from RRR

“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

The other absolute, must-win lock of the night. RRR should’ve been nominated for a dozen awards, but it’ll have to suffice with winning for the ear-worm “Naatu Naatu,” which features in the delightful mid-film dance sequence. Let’s just hope they let the stars perform it live on stage during the show.

Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Should Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Best Music, Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

A pretty lacklustre category in a year that had some very good scores. Justin Hurwitz has won before for his great work on La La Land (although his First Man score remains his best work), so I think he’ll win for the pervasive music of Babylon, which stays in your head, but doesn’t always work in the film. Of these nominations, The Banshees of Inisherin probably has the best score. Carter Burwell is always dependable and he captures the melancholy of the material better than the script. However, if there was any justice in these nominations, Michael Giacchino would be nominated for The Batman, Michael Abels would be nominated for Nope, and Tyler Bates and Timothy Williams would be nominated for Pearl.

Will Win: Babylon

Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Short Film, Animated

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”

“The Flying Sailor”

“Ice Merchants”

“My Year of Dicks”

“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It”

I never watch the shorts, so I just look at the prognosticator sites and go with whatever seems most likely from the consensus.

Will Win: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”

Best Short Film, Live Action

“An Irish Goodbye”

“Ivalu”

“Le Pupille”

“Night Ride”

“The Red Suitcase”

A guess based on consensus.

Will Win: “An Irish Goodbye”

Best Documentary Short

“The Elephant Whisperers”

“Haulout”

“How Do You Measure a Year?”

“The Martha Mitchell Effect”

“Stranger at the Gate”

Just doing the usual consensus guessing.

Will Win: “The Elephant Whisperers”

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny

In one of those recent anonymous Oscar voters pieces in Vulture, the source said that Navalny was the best chance for the Academy to say “fuck you to Putin,” which makes it seem like the obvious winner for an Academy that likes to make political statements in this category. Good thing it’s a strong film, with a candidate for scene of the year.

Will Win: Navalny

Should Win: Navalny

Best International Feature

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Close

EO

The Quiet Girl

I haven’t seen enough of these to comment on which one ought to win, but the fact that All Quiet on the Western Front is nominated for Best Picture tells you all you need to know about who’ll win here. It has a lot of love across the Academy, so it’ll win.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

Like with Best International Feature, I’ve only seen a single film in this category and think that the Netflix film will take it. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio has the love from the critics and the craft guilds, so it ought to break up the Pixar and Disney domination of the category for a year. However, I could also see Marcel the Shell with Shoes On stage an upset here, as people love that movie.

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

Elvis

The Fabelmans

Catherine Martin (wife of Baz Luhrmann) has won before and she will win again for her work on recreating the various decades of Elvis, with the flashy stage sets and stylized behind-the-scenes work. The opulence of Babylon could also win as that opening scene alone is begging to win an Oscar, but I personally would like to see Avatar win here. People might scoff at the idea of awarding a mostly digital film an Oscar for what they assume is physical design and labour, but there’s nothing in the rules that says the designs have to be physically built (remember, the original Avatar won Best Art Direction, which became Best Production Design). The award is for design and the design for Avatar is stunning. The crab mechs alone should win it the award.

Will Win: Elvis

Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

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