Predicting the 2020 Oscars

Best Picture

1917

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Little Women

Marriage Story

Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Parasite

This year’s field of Best Picture nominees is not quite as hard to figure out as last year’s, when Green Book upset Roma for the top prize (which I predicted), but it’s not as clear-cut as years like 2018, when everyone knew The Shape of Water would win the big awards (which was also likely the last time anyone thought about that mediocre movie). Joker and Jojo Rabbit could win as dark horse contenders, as they have ardent support across the field (especially from the actors’ branch), but I’d be genuinely surprised if they did win come Sunday night. The Irishman has all but faded, and will likely go home empty-handed. Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood scratches that familiar Hollywood itch, which the Academy loves, and Parasite is widely admired by everyone that sees it, but it’s a foreign language film, which has never won Best Picture (not even Roma could do it last year). So to figure out the likely winner, we have to remember that the Academy is inherently conservative and superficial, and so, will reward Sam Mendes’s superficial World War I epic, 1917. It has won at the major guilds, the Golden Globes, and the BAFTAs, so count it as an upset if it doesn’t win the Oscar as well.

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory

Leonardo DiCaprio for Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Adam Driver for Marriage Story

Joaquin Phoenix for Joker

Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes

Joaquin Phoenix has won all the precursor awards for his work as Arthur Fleck in Todd Phillips’ controversial blockbuster, Joker. He’ll become the second actor to win an Oscar for playing the Clown Prince of Crime, following Heath Ledger’s posthumous win for The Dark Knight. If there’s going to be an upset, it’ll be Adam Driver for his exceptional work in Marriage Story, but don’t count on it happening. If I could pick the winner, I’d give it to Antonio Banderas for his achingly gentle work in Pain and Glory, which is the culmination of a wonderful career.

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker

Should Win: Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo for Harriet

Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story

Saoirse Ronan for Little Women

Charlize Theron for Bombshell

Renée Zellwegger for Judy

Renée Zellwegger seems to have this award wrapped up, despite my own skepticism about anyone actually having seen Judy. The role is Zellwegger’s comeback, after having largely disappeared from Hollywood over the past decade. It’s also a biopic performance and one that incorporates an investigation of Hollywood’s past, so it has all the elements of a winner. If someone else wins, it’ll likely be Scarlett Johansson, who like her co-star Adam Driver, is great in the much-admired film. I’d like to see Saoirse Ronan win for her wonderful performance in Little Women. At 25, she seems to have already hit the level of being “overdue” for an Oscar, having been nominated four times already, but never won.

Will Win: Renée Zellwegger for Judy

Should Win: Saoirse Ronan for Little Women

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Anthony Hopkins for The Two Popes

Al Pacino for The Irishman

Joe Pesci for The Irishman

Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Like George Clooney before him, Brad Pitt will become the latest movie star to win a Best Supporting Actor Oscar because the Academy is too reluctant to reward him as a leading man. It’ll be a well-deserved award, as Pitt is the most charismatic element of Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood. The only problem is that he’s the co-lead with Leonardo DiCaprio, but at this point, category fraud is de rigueur for Best Supporting Actor and Actress. I’d also be happy to see Joe Pesci win for his stunning work in The Irishman, which will likely end up his final screen performance.

Will Win: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Should Win: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell

Laura Dern for Marriage Story

Scarlett Johansson for Jojo Rabbit

Florence Pugh for Little Women

Margot Robbie for Bombshell

Laura Dern is sweeping all the Oscar precursors, and she’s very good in Marriage Story as the cunning divorce lawyer for Scarlett Johnasson’s character. She has at least two speeches in this film that scream “Oscar moment,” so she’ll win. I’d reward Florence Pugh for her remarkable work in Little Women, which captures all the contradictions and vibrancy of a difficult character like Amy March. Who cares that it’s silly that Pugh is playing a 13-year-old in some of the film’s earliest scenes? She’s great throughout.

Will Win: Laura Dern for Marriage Story

Should Win: Florence Pugh for Little Women

Best Director

Bong Joon-ho for Parasite

Sam Mendes for 1917

Todd Phillips for Joker

Martin Scorsese for The Irishman

Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

The entirety of 1917 is a directorial flex, as if Sam Mendes is asking you to stand up and applaud his ambition in presenting the entire film as an unbroken shot (two shots, actually). He’s already won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, and the DGA, so he’ll win the Oscar as well. If there’s an upset, it’ll come in the form of Bong Joon-ho, the mastermind behind Parasite. His work orchestrating the film’s shifting tone and stunning mise-en-scene is remarkable. However much I love Tarantino’s work for Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood, I’m more impressed by the direction of Parasite, which has to be perfectly calibrated for the film to work as well as it does. He’d win in a just world.

Will Win: Sam Mendes for 1917

Should Win: Bong Joon-ho for Parasite

Best Original Screenplay

1917 by Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns

Knives Out by Rian Johnson

Marriage Story by Noah Baumbach

Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood by Quentin Tarantino

Parasite by Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won

Tarantino has already won twice before, but that shouldn’t stop him from picking up a third award for his glimpse back to time to Hollywood in 1969. Tarantino’s dialogue is as impressive as ever and the film’s easygoing vibe and lack of chapter-structure makes it less showy than some of his previous films, and thus, more impressive. I could also see Parasite winning here as the script, with its masterful narrative twists, sets the groundwork for the remarkable product on screen. Even though no one in the Academy has read the original script, as it’s in Korean, they probably admire the story enough as presented on screen to consider rewarding the screenplay.

Will Win: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood by Quentin Tarantino

Should Win: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood by Quentin Tarantino

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman by Steven Zaillian

Jojo Rabbit by Taika Waititi

Joker by Todd Phillips and Scott Silver

Little Women by Greta Gerwig

The Two Popes by Anthony McCarten

I’d normally say that Greta Gerwig has the inside track here due to the perception that she was snubbed in the Best Director category and that she didn’t win for her remarkable debut feature, Lady Bird. She’s also doing the nifty trick of changing up the chronology of Little Women and adding in a bunch of material from Louisa May Alcott’s letters and other stories; it’s really a remarkable feat of adaptation. But Jojo Rabbit has enjoyed a late surge and won the Writer’s Guild and BAFTA. I predict this will be the lone category where the Academy will reward Taika Waititi for his goofy (and failed) attempt at combining Mel Brooks-style farce and schmaltzy drama. If I could pick, I’d give Steven Zaillian the award for his incredible distillation of Frank Sheeran’s sprawling life into a comprehensible, but still mammoth, story.

Will Win: Jojo Rabbit by Taika Waititi

Should Win: The Irishman by Steven Zaillian

Best Cinematography

1917

The Irishman

Joker

The Lighthouse

Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Only a few short years ago, we wondered whether Roger Deakins would ever win an Oscar. Well, come Sunday night, he’ll likely have two Best Cinematography Oscars under his belt. The entire one-take gambit of 1917 relies on Deakins’ cinematography, which is remarkable. If the film is going to win Best Picture and Best Director, which I predict it will, it’s absurd to think that it won’t win Best Cinematography. However, I’d award Jarin Blaschke for his almost-square ratio, black-and-white work in The Lighthouse, which is as memorable as any cinematography in recent films.

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: The Lighthouse

Best Costume Design

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Little Women

Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Costume Design usually goes to the prettiest costumes, so if you’ve seen the lovely dresses in Little Women, you have probably seen the winner. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Joker won for Arthur’s outlandish full-Joker costume, or if Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood won for the convincing recreations of 1969.

Will Win: Little Women

Should Win: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Best Sound Mixing

1917

Ad Astra

Ford v Ferrari

Joker

Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

War movies or music movies usually win this category, and seeing as there’s no music movie, the war movie will come out on top. I’d give the award to Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood, which blends music from the radio into the texture of every single scene.

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Best Sound Editing

1917

Ford v Ferrari

Joker

Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Aside from the sound editors in the Academy, I doubt most Academy members know how to distinguish the sound categories, so I predict them awarding the same movie in both.

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Best Editing

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Parasite

This is a tricky category to choose as the Academy has made some baffling choices here over the years. Last year’s win for Bohemian Rhapsody was an embarrassment. That entire film is a complete mess and the incoherent editing should receive its share of the blame. I predict that the flashy editing of Ford v Ferrari will come out on top, particularly for its cross-cutting during the racing scenes. If I could pick, I’d give it to either Thelma Schoonmaker’s work on The Irishman, or Parasite, with its remarkable shifts in tone between scenes and even shots. The latter film has the better chance to pull off an upset.

Will Win: Ford v Ferrari

Should Win: Parasite

Best Visual Effects

1917

Avengers: Endgame

The Irishman

The Lion King

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Over the past few years, the Academy has been trending away from blockbusters in this category. So, while I wouldn’t be shocked if The Lion King won for its photorealistic animals, I think it more likely that 1917’s seamless digital effects work wins for recreating World War I within the confines of one shot. I’d be happy with that win, because the effects are arguably even more important than the cinematography in keeping the one-shot presentation credible.

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: 1917

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1917

Bombshell

Joker

Judy

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Bombshell transforms a bunch of famous actors into famous bad people from the news, so it’ll likely win based off of flashiness alone. I also wouldn’t discount Judy, which transforms Zellwegger into Garland, or Joker, with its iconic face paint.

Will Win: Bombshell

Should Win: Joker

Best Original Song

“I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough

“Into the Unknown” from Frozen II

“Stand Up” from Harriet

“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman

“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4

At the beginning of the year, I would’ve predicted Frozen II wins this category as the first film did, but seeing as it was left out of the Best Animated Film category, it seems the Academy is too cool on it for it to win here. That leaves Elton John and Bernie Taupin for Rocketman, bizarrely the only nomination for the film. (Rocketman being all but ignored by the Oscars and Bohemian Rhapsody winning four Oscars last year perfectly illustrates how stupid the Academy can be.)

Will Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman

Should Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman

Best Original Score

1917

Joker

Little Women

Marriage Story

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Joker has all the momentum, so its moody score from Hildur Guðnadóttir will likely win. I’d probably give the award to Alexandre Desplat for his lovely work in Little Women. He’s already won twice before, but he does a nice job here capturing the spirit of the characters in the music.

Will Win: Joker

Should Win: Little Women

Best Short Film, Animated

“Daughter”

“Hair Love”

“Kitbull”

“Mémorable”

“Sister”

I never watch these, so I’m shooting in the dark based off of buzz. The progressive cuteness of “Hair Love” seems to have the momentum.

Will Win: “Hair Love”

Best Short Film, Live Action

“Brotherhood”

“Nefta Football Club”

“The Neighbors’ Window”

“Saria”

“A Sister”

I dunno. “Brotherhood” comes first alphabetically, so why not it?

Will Win: “Brotherhood”

Best Documentary Short

“In the Absence”

“Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone”

“Life Overtakes Me”

“St. Louis Superman”

“Walk Run Cha-Cha”

Just based on the names, “Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone” seems to have the topical focus and sentimental subject matter to give it the edge.

Will Win: “Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone”

Best Documentary Feature

American Factory

The Cave

The Edge of Democracy

For Sama

Honeyland

For Sama could win for its depiction of the Syrian Civil War, but Netflix tends to win in this category as the easy availability of their documentaries helps a wide swath of voters to actually see their films, which makes them more likely to vote for them. That being the case, I think the worthy American Factory will take the award for its look inside a Chinese-owned American factory in Dayton, Ohio.

Will Win: American Factory

Should Win: American Factory

Best International Film

Corpus Christi

Honeyland

Les Misérables

Pain and Glory

Parasite

How could it be anything but Parasite, which also got nominations in the Best Picture and Best Director categories? I’d be shocked if it didn’t win and become the first South Korean film honoured at the Oscars.

Will Win: Parasite

Should Win: Parasite

Best Animated Feature

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

I Lost My Body

Klaus

Missing Link

Toy Story 4

Pixar will likely get back in the winning column for their Toy Story sequel, but I’d give it to Laika for the intricate stop-motion animation of Missing Link. Their craftsmanship keeps getting better and better.

Will Win: Toy Story 4

Should Win: Missing Link

Best Production Design

1917

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Parasite

Do you go with the war movie or the Hollywood period piece? In this case, I say the Hollywood period piece. For one, the cinematography and visual effects work are more obvious standouts for 1917. Furthermore, Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood has the benefit of not only recreating Hollywood of 1969, but also movie and television sets from 1969. That double accomplishment, and the fact that Hollywood loves to celebrate Hollywood on screen, makes it likely that it wins the award. Parasite is the dark horse for the meticulous way the designers created, from scratch, the entire house at the centre of the film.

Will Win: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Should Win: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

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