Predicting the 2022 Oscars

Best Picture

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Some years, like last year, the Oscars are predictable to a point of being boring. Other years, the Oscars are trickier to predict, such as this year, where CODA has seemingly come out of nowhere to become a Best Picture frontrunner. It won the Screen Actors Guild Best Ensemble award and since then has only picked up more and more momentum as the movie to beat. But will it win? If the actors in the Academy have their say, it will, but I’m not ready to count out The Power of the Dog, which led the field in nominations (12) and has dominated the non-SAG awards. The awards season has become something of a victory lap for Jane Campion, the New Zealander auteur who has long been adored by cinephiles and festivals, but who has never won the top Oscar awards (she was the first woman nominated for Best Director back in 1994 for The Piano). While there’s the question of anti-Netflix sentiment in the industry holding back The Power of the Dog from winning, especially when CODA has such ardent support, it’s worth noting that CODA is also from a streaming service, so the streaming question might be moot. What I’m sure of is that it’ll be between these two and if CODA wins it all, I won’t be surprised. However, I predict The Power of the Dog will thrive off the preferential balloting and wide respect across industry disciplines to take the day.

Will Win: The Power of the Dog

Should Win: Dune

Best Actor

Javier Bardem for Being the Richardos

Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield for Tick, Tick…Boom!

Will Smith for King Richard

Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth

This is not the greatest assemblage of actors in recent years, but there is a very good performance here: Denzel Washington as Macbeth. Sadly, Denzel has no chance of winning. All signs point to Will Smith finally picking up an Oscar. Ostensibly, it’s for his work as Richard Williams, the father of Venus and Serena Williams, but he’s been around long enough for there to have a career achievement quality to the campaign. Smith has won almost all the precursor awards. However, don’t count Andrew Garfield out. He could sneak in there to win for his performance as Jonathan Larson, the playwright behind Rent.

Will Win: Will Smith for King Richard

Should Win: Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter

Penélope Cruz for Parallel Mothers

Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart for Spencer

I haven’t seen many of these nominees, so I’ll withhold judgment on the quality of the performances in them. But I have to say, the imagery of Jessica Chastain or Nicole Kidman decked out in bad makeup as Tammy Faye Baker and Lucille Ball, respectively, is not promising. Chastain will likely win for her work in the little-seen yet weirdly awards-friendly The Eyes of Tammy Faye. I wish Kristen Stewart had a better chance for her exceptional, acutely anxious work as Princess Diana in Spencer. Penélope Cruz would also be a deserving winner for her great work in Parallel Mothers.

Will Win: Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Should Win: Kristen Stewart for Spencer

Best Supporting Actor

Ciaran Hinds for Belfast

Troy Kotsur for CODA

Jesse Plemons for The Power of the Dog

J.K. Simmons for Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog

Troy Kotsur has overtaken Kodi Smit-McPhee as the frontrunner here, winning many of the precursor awards, including the SAG. He’ll be the first deaf actor to win an Oscar since his co-star Marlee Matlin won in 1987 for Children of a Lesser God. I still think Kodi Smit-McPhee should take this for his quietly deceptive work as Peter in The Power of the Dog. His performance is as much a “performance” and as essential as Benedict Cumberbatch’s as Phil.

Will Win: Troy Kotsur for CODA

Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley for The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose for West Side Story

Judi Dench for Belfast

Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis for King Richard

Ariana DeBose is a highlight of West Side Story as the fiery Anita and she’ll likely come out on top. It’ll be a well deserving win, as well as one of those neat Oscar coincidences that only happens rarely, where two actresses win an Oscar for playing the same role in adaptations of the same work—Rita Moreno won for her work as Anita in the original West Side Story. I wouldn’t mind if DeBose wins, but I would love to see Kirsten Dunst finally be rewarded.

Will Win: Ariana DeBose for West Side Story

Should Win: Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh for Belfast

Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car

Steven Spielberg for West Side Story

In my blurb for Best Picture, I mentioned that this awards season has been a victory lap for Jane Campion. She’s going to win and will become the third woman to win Best Director—and the second in a row. When you watch The Power of the Dog, you know you’re watching the work of a master filmmaker, so it’ll be richly deserved. However, I would love to see some of the other directors win as well. Spielberg probably deserves it for his mastery of the camera in West Side Story, while Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryusuke Hamaguchi also do exceptional work in Licorice Pizza and Drive My Car, respectively. First-time nominee Kenneth Branagh is probably the guy who doesn’t belong here. He’s a good director, but his Shakespeare adaptations are his peak work. Denis Villeneuve should’ve been nominated in his stead. That he wasn’t remains absurd.

Will Win: Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

Should Win: Steven Spielberg for West Side Story

Best Original Screenplay

Belfast by Kenneth Branagh

Don’t Look Up by Adam McKay (story by Adam McKay and David Sirota)

King Richard by Zach Baylin

Licorice Pizza by Paul Thomas Anderson

The Worst Person in the World by Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier

Imagine a world where Don’t Look Up wins for its supposedly brilliant satire. It’d be ludicrous. Fortunately, I don’t think that’s going to happen. The battle here seems to be between two movies set during the time period of the filmmaker’s childhoods: Kenneth Branagh for Belfast and Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza. I think Branagh has the upper hand, but Licorice Pizza could net Anderson his first Oscar. I would love to see an upset where Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier win for their amazing work with The Worst Person in the World.

Will Win: Belfast by Kenneth Branagh

Should Win: The Worst Person in the World by Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier

Best Adapted Screenplay

CODA by Siân Heder

Drive My Car by Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamase Oe

Dune by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth

The Lost Daughter by Maggie Gyllenhaal

The Power of the Dog by Jane Campion

CODA is sweeping the awards season and it’s likely to win here, as the film is an adaptation of a French film. There are better-deserving winners, however. Dune is a herculean work of adaptation, paring down the novel and streamlining it in such a way as to be genuinely comprehensible to audiences. The Power of the Dog and Drive My Car also have layered screenplays, which would be worthy winners.

Will Win: CODA by Siân Heder

Should Win: Dune by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth

Best Cinematography

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Expect Dune to dominate most of the technical categories, similar to Mad Max Fury Road a few years back. It likely won’t win Best Picture, but it’ll probably take cinematography and several other categories. People across the Academy certainly noticed Greig Fraser’s massive scale IMAX imagery and he’ll likely be rewarded for it. If there’s an upset, expect West Side Story to swoop in. The Academy loves rewarding musicals in this category.

Will Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Best Costume Design

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

This is likely one of the rare categories where Dune won’t win, as there simply aren’t enough dresses in it. Cruella, no matter how garish and absurd, has big, colourful, ostentatious dresses the likes of which usually add up to a win in this category. So expect the Disney remake/prequel to take it. Also, don’t count out the period costumes of West Side Story or Nightmare Alley.

Will Win: Cruella

Should Win: Dune

Best Sound

Belfast

Dune

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

While war movies and musicals often dominate the sound categories, Dune invented sounds that feel truly alien and otherworldly. It ought to win and likely will. It’s a movie whose sound you feel in your gut.

Will Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Best Editing

Don’t Look Up

Dune

King Richard

The Power of the Dog

Tick, Tick…Boom!

It’s possible Dune wins this for its intricate parallel editing and excellent pacing, but this category has tended to become a case of “most equals best” in recent years (ahem, Bohemian Rhapsody), so I feel like the throw-everything-at-a-wall-and-see-what-sticks approach of Don’t Look Up will be rewarded by the Academy, who wants to give the divisive satire something.

Will Win: Don’t Look Up

Should Win: Dune

Best Visual Effects

Dune

Free Guy

No Time to Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Usually, the most immersive science-fiction film wins this category. If Blade Runner 2049 could win back in 2018, then Dune will surely win this year for its seamless work bringing Arrakis, Caladan, Salusa Secundus, and Giedi Prime to life.

Will Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Coming 2 America

Cruella

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

While its makeup seems atrocious to my eyes, the makeup of The Eyes of Tammy Faye is central to Chastain’s performance, so it’ll likely win. Being front-and-centre is a big part of winning in this category. Dune ought to win for the work on Stellan Skarsgaard’s Baron Harkonnen.

Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Should Win: Dune

Best Original Song

“Be Alive” from King Richard

“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

“Down to Joy” from Belfast

“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days

I haven’t heard enough of these to comment on what ought to win, but Bond songs usually do well, and Billie Eilish is a favourite of the entertainment industry, so expect her to take this and make it three-in-a-row for Bond pictures.

Will WIn: “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

Best Original Score

Don’t Look Up

Dune

Encanto

Parallel Mothers

The Power of the Dog

Hans Zimmer has only won a single Academy Award and for a movie you wouldn’t expect: The Lion King. Expect him to pick up his second for his otherworldly work for Dune. The dude and his team invented whole new musical progressions and sounds for this film. He really ought to win. However, if there’s an upset, expect Jonny Greenwood to finally win an Oscar for his minimalist yet effective work on The Power of the Dog.

Will Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Best Short Film, Animated

“Affairs of the Art”

“Bestia”

“Boxballet”

“Robin Robin”

“The Windshield Wiper”

I always just go with consensus in the short categories. “Robin Robin” sounds like the one to beat.

Will Win: “Robin Robin”

Best Short Film, Live Action

“Ala Kachuu – Take and Run”

“The Dress”

“The Long Goodbye”

“On My Mind”

“Please Hold”

Consensus.

Will Win: “The Long Goodbye”

Best Documentary Short

“Audible”

“Lead Me Home”

“The Queen of Basketball”

“Three Songs for Benazir”

“When We Were Bullies”

Consensus.

Will Win: “The Queen of Basketball”

Best Documentary Feature

Ascension

Attica

Flee

Summer of Soul (…or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Writing with Fire

Ashamedly, I haven’t seen any of these films. While Flee could win, I think it most likely the acclaimed and popular Summer of Soul wins Questlove an Oscar.

Will Win: Summer of Soul

Best International Feature

Drive My Car

Flee

The Hand of God

Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

The Worst Person in the World

I’d be shocked if Drive My Car doesn’t win here after picking up nominations for Best Picture and Best Director. It’s a minor phenomenon as far as international arthouse movies go, so expect it to win. However much I love Hamaguchi’s drama, I’d like to see Joachim Trier win for The Worst Person in the World just a bit more.

Will Win: Drive My Car

Should Win: The Worst Person in the World

Best Animated Feature

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. The Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Encanto is dominating music charts and terrorizing parents as their children demand to watch it on Disney+ for the umpteenth time. It will probably win here. I’d rather see it go to Luca or The Mitchells vs. The Machines, which were both solid animated movies with a good amount of heart and laughs. Don’t count out a Flee upset though. That it was nominated across three categories—Animation, Documentary, and International—means it has wide support.

Will Win: Encanto

Should Win: Luca

Best Production Design

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Dune will be rewarded for bringing another world to life. The work here is seamless, so if they reward the visual effects, they’ll also likely reward the production design, as it’s often hard to tell one from the other. However, never count out a Guillermo del Toro film in this category. Nightmare Alley does look terrific and the psychologist’s office alone is a marvel of design. But Dune is the favourite.

Will Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

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