Predicting the 2014 Oscars
It’s that time of year. With the Academy Awards set for Sunday, the Three Brothers have taken it upon themselves to predict of who’ll win. We’ve also listed who we think should win right along side.
Academy Award Predictions
Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
Aren: I wouldn’t be all that surprised if either 12 Years a Slave or American Hustle or Gravity took this. They’ve all had their passionate supporters in the awards season and they all fit as the kind of movie Oscar likes to reward. If there’s justice in the Academy, 12 Years a Slave will win, and for once I think the Academy will make the right choice and award it the top prize of the evening.
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Anton: I also think the big award could easily go one of the three ways Aren’s indicated, but I’m betting the Academy is going to choose the most serious of the films, which is also far and away the best of the three.
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Anders: I’m taking a gamble here. 12 Years a Slave and Gravity tied for the Producers Guild Award, and I saw those two and American Hustle as the frontrunners. I’m predicting the first two will split the votes and American Hustle will win. However, I think 12 Years a Slave is the most deserving of the films nominated this year.
Will Win: American Hustle
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Best Actor
Christian Bale for American Hustle
Bruce Dern for Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
Aren: I won’t be sad when Matthew McConaughey walks away with the award on Sunday evening, because he’s very good in Dallas Buyers Club and he’s had one of the best runs of performances over the past three years that I can think of. It’s just that, in this particular case, he’s not the best in the category. That honour would go to Leonardo DiCaprio who, despite being generally considered the best actor of his generation, manages to surprise in The Wolf of Wall Street. DiCaprio’s long overdue and I’ll be very happy if he finally gets his due.
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street
Anton: The safest bet on one of the big awards you’ll make all night. McConaughey’s award is all but guaranteed. But since he and DiCaprio are already firmly embedded in the stratosphere, I’d like to see Ejiofor bumped up to the A-List.
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave
Anders: McConaughey does seem a safe bet, but DiCaprio gives what might be his best performance ever. It’s so full of energy and dangerously unhinged. Comedy is hard, but it rarely gets rewarded.
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Actress
Amy Adams for American Hustle
Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock for Gravity
Judi Dench for Philomena
Meryl Streep for August: Osage County
Aren: The only performance I haven’t seen here is Meryl Streep’s in August: Osage County, but she has no chance of winning. Cate Blanchett is looking like an awards juggernaut at this point, with Amy Adams having some late-season momentum that may win her the award. Dench is the most deserving in the category. She’s possibly our best living actress and she really digs deep into a character who could come across as hackneyed.
Will Win: Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
Should Win: Judi Dench for Philomena
Anton: Why is Streep even nominated? Did anyone even watch August: Osage County? I suppose her name is just never taken off the ballots. Part of me thinks Bullock could take the award, but Blanchett is too likely a choice to pass up. I would like to see Amy Adams finally win though.
Will Win: Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
Should Win: Amy Adams for American Hustle
Anders: Cate Blanchett has won most of the awards on her way to Sunday’s show, and I imagine that the big award will be her’s as well. But Amy Adams gives the strongest performance in a film that is really an actors showcase (I have my quibbles with American Hustle, but the performances are pretty strong). She is long overdue.
Will Win: Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
Should Win: Amy Adams for American Hustle
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper for American Hustle
Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club
Aren: Jared Leto is a lock at this point. I’ll be flabbergasted if he doesn’t win, which is fine, since he’s good in the film and he remains a true supporting player in it, staying buried in his role in order to add to the arc of the film, not steal attention away from it. But Barkhad Abdi is the most impressive of these performers, for coming out of nowhere and acting toe to toe with Tom Hanks. He should win. That Daniel Bruhl was overlooked for Rush is a travesty, but I guess write-in ballots don’t work for this kind of thing.
Will Win: Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club
Should Win: Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips
Anton: Agreed about Daniel Bruhl, Aren. He was sorely overlooked. I can’t imagine Jared Leto not winning at this point, though, especially since he plays a transgender woman, and Hollywood loves to portray itself as a progressive institution. While I agree that Barkhad Abdi was impressive, Fassbender’s performance stands out in my mind the most.
Will Win: Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club
Should Win: Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave
Anders: I agree with everything the other two have said about Leto, but Michael Fassbender is one of the best actors working today and he throws himself into his performance as slave-owner Edwin Epps. It’s a brave performance. Epps is a monster, but Fassbender never lets us forget Epps’ humanity.
Will Win: Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club
Should Win: Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts for August: Osage County
June Squibb for Nebraska
Aren: I’m most split on this category. 51% of me thinks that the love Hollywood has for Jennifer Lawrence will give her another award, just one year after she won for Silver Linings Playbook. 49% thinks that newcomer Lupita Nyong’o will win for her heartbreaking turn as Patsy in 12 Years a Slave. I think Nyong’o is most deserving for the complex emotions she brings out in the audience and the other performers.
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle
Should Win: Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave
Anton: It’s a tough choice. I think there’s enough love for Lawrence though.
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle
Should Win: Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave
Anders: I will not be surprised if Jennifer “America’s Sweetheart” Lawrence wins an award for the second year in a row, but this is the one I’m least sure about predicting. I think Nyong’o’s performance is the kind that can win these things with its sheer emotional punch, and won’t be unhappy if she does pull it off.
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle
Should Win: Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave
Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell for American Hustle
Alexander Payne for Nebraska
Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street
Aren: Alfonso Cuarón will win for Gravity and all the years of hard work he put into it. Which I find funny, because if Cuarón can win for Gravity and James Cameron can’t win for Avatar, which made filmmaking like Gravity possible, then things are out of whack. Nevertheless, Gravity is a director’s film, and Cuarón seems due for some recognition. Steve McQueen, however, was most essential to his film. 12 Years a Slave could have been disastrously handled by a lesser director. Luckily, McQueen made a film for the ages.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
Should Win: Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
Anton: The choice is really only between two: Cuarón or McQueen. Cuarón hand in shaping Gravity is more obvious, though, so I think he’ll win, and the film’s more of a technical breakthrough. I think Russell, Payne, and Scorsese were as much nominated for their reputations as their 2013 films, especially Russell. His movie’s pretty messy.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
Should Win: Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
Anders: Cuarón won the DGA award, and will win this one. Gravity is a director’s film, his vision from beginning to end and a great achievement in film creation. I lean toward McQueen because his achievement means more to me personally, but I say Cuarón will win, even if 12 Years a Slave takes Best Picture.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
Should Win: Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Blue Jasmine by Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club by Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack
Her by Spike Jonze
Nebraska by Bob Nelson
Aren: I’m not a fan of any of these screenplays. Her lets pertinent questions go undiscussed. Dallas Buyers Club and Nebraska are routine, conventional drama. Blue Jasmine is just A Streetcar Named Desire. American Hustle is the only one with any originality to it. It may be shaggy and unkempt, but it stands out and gives actors something to play with.
Will Win: American Hustle by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Should Win: American Hustle by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Anton: Her will win because everyone thinks it’s so insightful and honest about modern romance, which I think is a sad indication of what we think about love. American Hustle isn’t tight enough, which leaves me with Blue Jasmine by default.
Will Win: Her by Spike Jonze
Should Win: Blue Jasmine by Woody Allen
Anders: I’m not a huge fan of the screenplays for the films I’ve seen from this category. I think Her will win, because of the script’s perceived originality. However, I really missed the presence of Jonze’s old writing partner, Charlie Kaufman. I say American Hustle should win, since it was the film I liked best out of this category, but I wonder how much is really owed to the actors and not the script on this one?
Will Win: Her by Spike Jonze
Should Win: American Hustle by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave by John Ridley
Before Midnight by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke
Captain Phillips by Billy Ray
Philomena by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
The Wolf of Wall Street by Terence Winter
Aren: These are all good screenplays, to varying degrees. Philomena is standard fare aside from how Coogan and Pope avoid making the story all about Coogan’s Martin Sixsmith and him learning a “very important lesson.” Captain Phillips and 12 Years a Slave are remarkable filterings of history into cinematic drama. Before Midnight should almost be awarded just to honour the entire trilogy. But The Wolf of Wall Street is so damn funny, and clever, and the film wouldn’t be half as good as it is if the script didn’t offer up all the golden material.
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave by John Ridley
Should Win: The Wolf of Wall Street by Terence Winter
Anton: Giving the award to 12 Years a Slave will be a gesture of respect towards Solomon Northup and his account, whereas awarding Terence Winter for The Wolf of Wall Street would be applauding his scathing critique of his source material. I do love how the subtext of Captain Phillips undercuts the film’s portrayal of American military might, so I would also be happy to see it win.
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave by John Ridley
Should Win: The Wolf of Wall Street by Terence Winter
Anders: I’ll say that Writer’s Guild Award winner Billy Ray will take this one, since it is the only award I can see Captain Phillips winning and Ray is a respected industry vet. Terrence Winter’s script for The Wolf of Wall Street strikes me as the greatest achievement though, crafting a fine film out of material that in different hands could have struck a very different tone.
Will Win: Captain Phillips by Billy Ray
Should Win: The Wolf of Wall Street by Terence Winter
Best Cinematography
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
Aren: Gravity is the showiest so it’ll win, continuing the conquering march of the digital camera in Hollywood. It shouldn’t win. The Grandmaster, Inside Llewyn Davis and Prisoners are all better shot. The cinematography in Inside Llewyn Davis does the remarkable and makes the time period seem both beautiful and authentic. It should win.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Inside Llewyn Davis
Anton: Probably Gravity’s surest win. The compositions in Prisoners are exquisite though.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Prisoners
Anders: Yup, Gravity will win since it shows off the best use of virtual cinematography and the ascendancy of digital cinema. But I’m with Aren, Inside Llewyn Davis is a beautiful film and the compositions and camera work complement the film perfectly. The work in The Grandmaster and Prisoners is very fine too, going a long way toward making those films as good as they are.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Costume Design
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Aren: Gatsby is all about the parties and the opulence. Just look at all those flapper dresses and Leonardo DiCaprio’s choice suits and tell me that film doesn’t win.
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Win: The Great Gatsby
Anton: I think a lot of people, myself included, enjoyed American Hustle chiefly for its seventies dress-up. It should win for Bradley Cooper’s hair curlers alone.
Will Win: American Hustle
Should Win: American Hustle
Anders: Gatsby is the most obvious choice, and the showiest. Period pieces often do well, but the costumes in Wong Kar-wai’s The Grandmaster aren’t just beautiful, they suit the characters so well they become part of their performances.
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Win: The Grandmaster
Best Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
Aren: Gravity will win, putting the nail in the coffin of distinction between this category and Sound Editing. Gravity is all editing, not mixing, since mixing refers to sound picked up during the shoot, not assembled in post production. But most people don’t know that, so it’ll win. InsideLlewynDavis deserves to win for how the microphones capture the beauty of the music.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Inside Llewyn Davis
Anton: Based on Aren’s tutorial on sound mixing, I’m hoping Captain Phillips wins.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Captain Phillips
Anders: Agreed. Gravity should not win this category, but probably will. Sound mixing includes the quality of the sound picked up during filming, but also how it is “mixed” with the other tracks. In both aspects, Inside Llewyn Davis is stand out.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Sound Editing
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
Aren: Gravity will win because the sound is so in your face. All Is Lost should win because of how essential the sound is to telling the story. When there’s no dialogue, the breaking of the waves and creaking of the ship do a lot to getting the narrative across. I still remember the sound of water rushing into the cabin in All Is Lost.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: All Is Lost
Anton: Gravity will clean up most of the technical awards, but more sound is better, right?
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Anders: This category usually goes to “most,” not “best.” Sound Editing also involves the creation of new sounds and foley work. But I’ll actually say that, since I’ve not seen All is Lost, I think Gravity deservedly creates a unique sonic landscape, especially the sounds that takes us inside the head of Ryan Stone during her space walks.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Best Editing
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Aren: Gravity is short and impactful and flashy, thus it’ll win. 12 Years a Slave is a remarkable editing job, making something more artful and complex, but still easy to follow. It should win.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Anton: American Hustle is too confusing to deserve this award.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Anders: American Hustle will win, since it has the most story lines to juggle, even though it should lose points for its muddled delivery. Also, I think a win in this category will push it toward a Best Picture statuette. 12 Years a Slave does the best job of pacing and assembling the story, combining the best of suggestive art house techniques and mainstream Hollywood continuity editing techniques.
Will Win: American Hustle
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness
Aren: Gravity is the only big nominee in this category, so it’ll win, despite the fact that without the 3D, the CGI is not as impressive as the other stuff here. I’d pick The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug for how WETA rendered SMAUG. He’s a great character and he looks amazing, especially in HFR.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Anton: Gravity is considered a game-changer, so there’s no doubt in my mind.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Anders: Gravity should and will win, not just for the CG renderings, but for the way it uses visual effects in nearly every part of the filmmaking process.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
Aren: Dallas Buyers Club had a makeup budget of $250 and managed to make Matthew McConaughey look like he was dying and Jared Leto look like a woman. It’ll win, deservedly so. Even though I haven’t seen the film, I have to say the old man makeup in Bad Grandpa looks very impressive.
Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Should Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Anton: I haven’t seen these films, so I can’t judge.
Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Anders: The only film in this category I’ve seen is The Lone Ranger, and I don’t think it should or will win. It’s another case of “most” rather than “best.”
Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Song
“Happy” from Despicable Me 2 by Pharrell Williams
“Let It Go” from Frozen by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“The Moon Song” from Her by Karen O and Spike Jonze
“Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom by U2
Aren: “Let It Go” is hugely overrated. The music is the worst part of Frozen and keeps it from being top-tier Disney. But it’ll win because audiences are over the moon for it. U2 should win as “Ordinary Love” is a solid anthem to one of their heroes, Nelson Mandela. Now, must I ask the obvious: where is “Please Mr. Kennedy?”
Will Win: “Let It Go” from Frozen by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
Should Win: “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom by U2
Anton: I’m a fan of U2.
Will Win: “Let It Go” from Frozen by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
Should Win: “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom by U2
Anders: I like U2, though I have no idea how “Ordinary Love” plays in the context of the film. I think that Frozen has this category locked considering how much I’ve seen “Let It Go” in my Facebook and Twitter feed. However, I also like Karen O and her work in Her and Jonze’s last film, Where the Wild Things Are, were the best things about them.
Will Win: “Let It Go” from Frozen by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
Should Win: “The Moon Song” from Her by Karen O and Spike Jonze
Best Score
The Book Thief by John Williams
Gravity by Steven Price
Her by Arcade Fire & Owen Pallett
Philomena by Alexandre Desplat
Saving Mr. Banks by Thomas Newman
Aren: I don’t like any of these scores. Gravity is in your face for the entire running time, holding your hand through every emotion, so it’ll win. Since it’s the only one I remember from these scores, I guess it should?
Will Win: Gravity by Steven Price
Should Win: Gravity by Steven Price
Anton: I thought Gravity had a terrible score. It goes over every emotion like highlighter. Her has probably the best and most subtle score of the bunch. But where’s Hans Zimmer’s score for 12 Years a Slave? The way that score sounded like a horror movie’s was an excellent choice.
Will Win: Gravity by Steven Price
Should Win: Her by Arcade Fire & Owen Pallett
Anders: Agree that Gravity's score isn’t the greatest (I think it would work better scoreless). At least it’s better than Thomas Newman’s treacly score for Saving Mr. Banks. I did like Arcade Fire’s score for Her, even if it plays into the film’s hipster affectation, so I’d love to see them up on the stage.
Will Win: Gravity by Steven Price
Should Win: Her by Arcade Fire & Owen Pallett
Best Short Film, Animated
"Feral"
"Get a Horse!"
"Mr. Hublot"
"Possessions"
"Room on the Broom"
Aren: Only saw one of these but the consensus seems to be the Disney short will win.
Will Win: "Get a Horse!"
Anton: Disney it will be.
Will Win: "Get a Horse!"
Anders: Didn’t see any, so I’m trusting Aren.
Will Win: "Get a Horse!"
Best Short Film, Live Action
"Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?"
"Helium"
"Just Before Losing Everything"
"That Wasn’t Me"
"The Voorman Problem"
Aren: Going with popular consensus. Haven’t seen any.
Will Win: "The Voorman Problem"
Anton: Always the true gambles.
Will Win: "Just Before Losing Everything"
Anders: This is always a guess, but "That Wasn’t Me" is about child soldiers. That should get at some voters emotions.
Will Win: "That Wasn't Me"
Best Documentary Short
"Cavedigger"
"Facing Fear"
"Karama Has No Walls"
"The Lady in Number 6"
"Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall"
Aren: Consensus.
Will Win: "The Lady in Number 6"
Anton: Guess.
Will Win: "Facing Fear"
Anders: I haven’t seen any of the short film nominees, but “Facing Fear” will win since it matches the zeitgeist the most closely.
Will Win: “Facing Fear”
Best Documentary Feature
20 Feet from Stardom
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
Aren: The Act of Killing should win. It’s a remarkably challenging film, but the more I think about it, the Academy will reward the feel-good 20 Feet from Stardom over the shattering The Act of Killing. Between awarding unsung backup singers or Indonesian who committed genocide, I think the Academy is too tame and will pick the backup singers.
Will Win: 20 Feet from Stardom
Should Win: The Act of Killing
Anton: I watched quite a few docs this year, but unfortunately none of these. I’m betting the Academy chooses serious again.
Will Win: The Act of Killing
Anders: The Act of Killing was an astonishing and powerful and I think it will affect the voters enough to take the award. It deserves it, even if an award seems almost unseemly for such subject matter.
Will Win: The Act of Killing
Should Win: The Act of Killing
Note: All of the nominees except 20 Feet from Stardom are available for streaming on US Netflix.
Best Foreign Feature
The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Hunt
The Great Beauty
The Missing Picture
Omar
Aren: I’ve only seen The Hunt, which is a very good film. The Great Beauty seems to be getting most of the attention, so it’ll likely win.
Will Win: The Great Beauty
Should Win: The Hunt
Anton: I’ve heard by far the most about The Great Beauty.
Will Win: The Great Beauty
Anders: I haven’t seen any of these, but The Great Beauty took the Golden Globe and has lots of support. I’m interested in seeing it and The Hunt and The Broken Circle Breakdown (I heard the music is great).
Will Win: The Great Beauty
Best Animated Feature
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Aren: I hate to say it, but Frozen will win. The Academy will throw away their opportunity to award Hayao Miyazaki’s last film The Wind Rises, which is a travesty. It should be up for Best Picture, and win it too. Frozen is a good film. The Wind Rises is a masterpiece.
Will Win: Frozen
Should Win: The Wind Rises
Anton: Critically, The Wind Rises has not been getting the love it deserves, so I’m going with Disney. The Academy will want to reward the two princesses.
Will Win: Frozen
Should Win: The Wind Rises
Anders: I’m thinking this completes Disney’s perceived comeback with Frozen (their highest grossing non-Pixar film since The Lion King). Though The Wind Rises and Hayao Miyazaki should be getting this award.
Will Win: Frozen
Should Win: The Wind Rises
Best Production Design
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
Aren: Just look at those parties! Look at them! Gatsby all the way.
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Win: The Great Gatsby
Anton: I have many reservations about Her, but the design is excellent. I mean, just look at how his shirts go with the walls! I’m betting on the flashy choice though.
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Win: Her
Anders: I actually didn’t really like Her's design. Too knowing and twee for me to buy it. American Hustle’s seventies milieu is a big hit, though Gatsby wins for sheer opulence.
Will Win: American Hustle
Should Win: The Great Gatsby