Predicting the 2021 Oscars

Best Picture

The Father

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Despite how strange this year’s awards season has been, coming after a year with virtually no movie theatres, there’s actually not that much difference between this set of Oscar noms and those of previous years. Domestic box office and notions of popularity in Best Picture nominations have long been thrown out. So this year, the absence of a single box office smash among them isn’t out of the ordinary—I guess The Trial of the Chicago 7 would’ve made a healthy box office haul with its big cast had it been released in theatres in a normal year; but it’s a Netflix film, so even if the pandemic wasn’t a thing, it’d still be a streaming title primarily. Thus, you have to look to The Discourse™ and awards’ precursors to figure out what’s going to win. Nomadland has all the momentum and has taken most of the big precursors, including the TIFF People’s Choice Award, the Golden Globes, and the BAFTAs, so I think it’s the favourite here. However, the aforementioned The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the popular dark horse here, with a stacked cast, a prestigious writer-director (Aaron Sorkin), and a supposedly timely focus. If the Academy decides to split the Best Picture and Best Director winners, expect The Trial of the Chicago 7 to come out on top, despite it being the worst film of the bunch.

Will Win: Nomadland

Should Win: The Father

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins for The Father

Gary Oldman for Mank

Steven Yeun for Minari

Chadwick Boseman’s untimely death still hurts all these months later. For that fact alone, I expect him to win posthumously for the August Wilson adaptation, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. He’s also terrific in the film, showing off a wild energy and emotional range that is fairly absent in his more stoic performances in the films that made him a star, namely Black Panther. This makes his death all the more tragic, as he likely would’ve gone on to have a long and storied career, balanced between Hollywood hits and dramatic prestige pictures. I won’t be unhappy when Boseman wins, but if I could pick, I’d choose Anthony Hopkins for his heartbreaking work in The Father. It’s equally as theatrical as Boseman’s—both films are based on stage plays—but even more heartbreaking. My only quibble with the nominations would be to swap out Gary Oldman, who is miscast in Mank, with Mads Mikkelsen for Another Round.

Will Win: Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Should Win: Anthony Hopkins for The Father

Best Actress

Viola Davis for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Andra Day for The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Vanessa Kirby for Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand for Nomadland

Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman

This is a fairly sorry lot. Where is Carrie Coon for The Nest? Where is Elisabeth Moss for The Invisible Man? Why are the best performances almost always absent from this category? Looking at the performances that are here, I think Frances McDormand and Viola Davis are both very good in their respective films. I’d take Davis over McDormand simpy for the difficulty of playing such a prickly, even dislikeable character, who still looms over the whole film despite her limited screen time. McDormand may very well win, catapulting her into a class of Hollywood icons to have won Best Actor or Actress three times, but I think Carey Mulligan will win for Promising Young Woman. She has the momentum and the edge that the Academy thinks is necessary to win this kind of award, despite the fact that I think she’s miscast.

Will Win: Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman

Should Win: Viola Davis for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen for The Trial of the Chicago 7

Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom Jr. for One Night in Miami…

Paul Raci for Sound of Metal

Lakeith Stanfield for Judas and the Black Messiah

There is some category fraud going on here, as the two main characters of Judas and the Black Messiah cannot both be supporting performances. Lakeith Stanfield as Bill O’Neal should be in the lead category, which means that Daniel Kaluuya would be left alone here for his work as Fred Hampton. He’s going to win and rightly so, as his performance in the public speech scenes of this film are titanic. Sure, they’re familiar Oscar bait scenes, but that doesn’t mean they’re not great. It’s nice to see Paul Raci recognized for his quietly powerful work in Sound of Metal.

Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah

Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman for The Father

Amanda Seyfried for Mank

Youn Yuh-jung for Minari

Some good picks here along with some legacy votes. I’m not sure anyone actually has seen and liked Hillbilly Elegy, but that may not stop Glenn Close from winning what would be a Career Achievement Award. Still, I think the edge goes to Youn Yuh-jung for her hilarious work in Minari. I’d give it to Maria Bakalova as Borat’s daughter if I could, as she proves to be every bit the comedic match for Baron Cohen in that film.

Will Win: Youn Yuh-jung for Minari

Should Win: Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Director

Lee Isaac Chung for Minari

Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman

David Fincher for Mank

Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round

Chloé Zhao for Nomadland

Chloé Zhao should have this locked up as she’s won every single precursor award. She’ll be the second woman to ever win Best Director. She’s a good director, so it’ll be nice to see her awarded, but I’d give the award to Thomas Vinterberg, who is able to coax out brilliant performances from his cast in Another Round while avoiding any and all moralizing along the way. Another Round is a perfect example of sympathetic filmmaking, where Vinterberg is able to depict his characters without judgment and capture the full range of human expression with his camera.

Will Win: Chloé Zhao for Nomadland

Should Win: Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round

Best Original Screenplay

Judas and the Black Messiah by Will Berson & Shaka King

Minari by Lee Isaac Chung

Promising Young Woman by Emerald Fennell

Sound of Metal by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder

The Trial of the Chicago 7 by Aaron Sorkin

I’m not over the moon about the nominations in this category. Judas and the Black Messiah and Sound of Metal are good movies with some notable weaknesses in the writing—Judas with its overreliance on scenes of Fred Hampton’s domestic life to humanize him, Sound of Metal with the didacticism of its later moments. Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are bad films where the writing is a key offender. So that leaves Minari as the film that probably deserves to win this, simply for not messing anything up on the page. However, I think Promising Young Woman will take this for what is perceived as verve on behalf of the writing. I could also see Sorkin pick up another Oscar for Chicago 7.

Will Win: Promising Young Woman by Emerald Fennell

Should Win: Minari by Lee Isaac Chung

Best Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern

The Father by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

Nomadland by Chloè Zhao

One Night in Miami… by Kemp Powers

The White Tiger by Ramin Bahrani

The Father and Nomadland weren’t eligible for the WGA Awards, so it’s hard to look at previous winners and try to read the tea leaves. While I think that The Father should and very possibly could win, for a smart adaptation of a stage play, while keeping the impact of the stage conceit intact, I suspect Nomadland to take the big categories and so I think it’ll pick up an Oscar here for Zhao’s narrative adaptation of a non-fiction book.

Will Win: Nomadland by Chloé Zhao

Should Win: The Father by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

Best Cinematography

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

News of the World

Nomadland

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Did you watch Nomadland? Did you see all the Golden Hour shots and camerawork that’s evocative of Emmanuel Lubezki’s work with Terrence Malick? If you did, you should assume it will win this category, which often goes to the prettiest of the nominees. While I prefer Nomadland to Mank as a film, I actually think the cinematography of Mank is one of its best elements. The scene in the movie theatre where Mayer explains his pay cuts to all the bit players of MGM gathered in the seats is an example of how well shot that film is in moments.

Will Win: Nomadland

Should Win: Mank

Best Costume Design

Emma

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

Mulan

Pinocchio

You can often look at the film with the biggest and brightest costumes and give it the award. This year will likely be no different, as the elaborate costumes for Emma and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom seem to be the frontrunners. Of the two, expect Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom to win, as the film is better liked by the Academy and Ma Rainey’s costumes in the film are truly eye-popping. I would prefer Mank to pick this up for some exemplary period work. But I think the black-and-white cinematography will ultimately cost it the award, since the Academy likes to award colour as much as detail and texture.

Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Should Win: Mank

Best Sound

Greyhound

Mank

News of the World

Soul

Sound of Metal

If Sound of Metal doesn’t win this for having one of the most impressive sound designs in recent memory, I’ll be baffled. Furthermore, the merging of Best Sound Mixing with Best Sound Editing should simplify the category for both voters and the viewers at home, making it very simple: did the movie sound good? Then it should win. Sound of Metal, whatever else you may think of it, has terrific sound work. No other film on this list puts you into the subjective soundscape of its lead character quite like this one does.

Will Win: Sound of Metal

Should Win: Sound of Metal

Best Editing

The Father

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

I think Nomadland and Sound of Metal both have a good chance of winning here, but I think the Academy will go with the flashy work in The Trial of the Chicago 7, which relies on quick editing and flashbacks to keep the relentless pace moving and communicate necessary information to the viewer. The Father ought to win for its brilliant manipulation of on-screen space and time through the editing.

Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Should Win: The Father

Best Visual Effects

Love and Monsters

The Midnight Sky

Mulan

The One and Only Ivan

Tenet

Tenet has great visual effects and special effects, and the fact that you cannot tell the two apart in most scenes speaks to how well incorporated they are. It’s also the only truly big-scale film to come out in 2020, and I think the Academy will want to reward it for trying (and failing) to keep movie theatres alive in the pandemic year.

Will Win: Tenet

Should Win: Tenet

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Emma

Hillbilly Elegy

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

Pinocchio

Like costuming, makeup and hairstyling usually goes to the loudest demonstration of the craft. Thus, Viola Davis’s expressive makeup and Chadwick Boseman’s clipped hairstyle will probably give Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom the award here. It’s a deserving winner. I also wouldn’t be shocked if Hillbilly Elegy won here, as some truly egregious makeup work has won in the past, for the virtue of simply being loud and obvious.

Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Should Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Original Song

“Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah

“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7

“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

“Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead

“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami…

I haven’t seen enough of these films to say which film ought to win. But I think the goofy song from Netflix’s fictionalized Eurovision film will probably win the award based on people’s affection for the film and its momentum leading into the awards.

Will Win: “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

Best Original Score

Da 5 Bloods

Mank

Minari

News of the World

Soul

Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross have two nominations here. Both scores are terrific, but their work along with jazz composer Jon Batiste will win for Pixar’s Soul. The blend between aetherial ambience in the Great Before scenes and the jazz of the Earth moments make for a memorable work that is rightly applauded. I’m a little peeved that Ludwig Goransson’s propulsive work for Tenet isn’t recognized here.

Will Win: Soul

Should Win: Soul

Best Short Film, Animated

“Burrow”

“Genius Loci”

“If Anything Happens I Love You”

“Opera”

“Yes-People”

I haven’t seen any of these, so I always just predict based on the consensus going into the awards. The fact that “If Anything Happens I Love You” deals with a school shooting makes me think it’s winning.

Will Win: “If Anything Happens I Love You”

Best Short Film, Live Action

“Feeling Through”

“The Letter Room”

“The Present”

“Two Distant Strangers”

“White Eye”

Consensus.

Will Win: “The Letter Room”

Best Documentary Short

“Colette”

“A Concerto Is a Conversation”

“Do Not Split”

“Hunger Ward”

“A Love Song for Latasha”

Consensus.

Will Win: “A Love Song for Latasha”

Best Documentary Feature

Collective

Crip Camp

The Mole Agent

My Octopus Teacher

Time

I haven’t seen any of these, but the description of My Octopus Teacher makes it sound tearjerking, and tearjerking often wins in this category. Netflix also seems to be on a roll with Best Documentary in recent years, and My Octopus Teacher is a Netflix film.

Will Win: My Octopus Teacher

Best International Feature

Another Round

Better Days

Collective

The Man Who Sold His Skin

Quo Vadis, Aida?

Another Round got a Best Director nomination for Thomas Vinterberg, which means that it has broad support across the Academy. So if it doesn’t win Best International Feature, I’ll be surprised. It’d be a richly deserving win. It should’ve been in the Best Picture category as well.

Will Win: Another Round

Should Win: Another Round

Best Animated Feature

Onward

Over the Moon

A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Soul

Wolfwalkers

For a while, I was thinking my beloved Wolfwalkers had the momentum to upstage Pixar and win this award, but the tides seem to have turned and Soul seems fated to pick up yet another Oscar for Pixar. It’s a fine film, but nowhere near the achievement that Wolfwalkers is, so it’ll be disappointing to see it win. Nevertheless, put your money on Pixar.

Will Win: Soul

Should Win: Wolfwalkers

Best Production Design

The Father

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

News of the World

Tenet

Mank is the film with the most nominations this year, but I predict it’ll only win this sole award, for the production design, which recreates the 1930s and 1940s in Hollywood. The Academy loves to celebrate films that celebrate Hollywood and like they did with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood… at the last Oscars, I expect them to give Mank the award this year.

Will Win: Mank

Should Win: Mank

Related Posts