Predicting the 2011 Oscars

Like many film fans, I’ll be watching the 83rd Academy Awards on Sunday night (for the first time since 2008 for me). I have seen all ten films that are nominated for Best Picture this year, and while I think most of them are pretty decent, I don’t necessarily put too much stock in the Oscars – I’ll be putting out my own Top Ten films of 2010 on this website soon. While some of my favourites made the Academy’s short lists, predicting Oscars is more about keeping one’s pulse on industry buzz and also a little bit of luck.

My feelings right now are that Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech is going to clean up. I think that the momentum the film has is going to spill into a couple of other categories. My biggest dark horse pick is that Helena Bonham Carter is going to pick up the supporting Oscar for playing the Queen Mum. Melissa Leo and Amy Adams will split the vote for The Fighter, so if I’m wrong look for Hailee Steinfeld to pick up the Oscar (in what is really a lead performance) for True Grit.

I also think that the Academy will award popular films like The Social Network and Inception in the screenwriting categories (Inception didn’t score a Best Directing nod, so I think it’s out of luck in the Best Picture category), while awarding DP Roger Deakins for True Grit as a kind of lifetime achievement. My thoughts on the shorts and documentaries are mostly guesses based on the buzz

So, without further ado here are my picks.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Fighter – Christian Bale

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The King’s Speech – Helena Bonham Carter

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Social Network – Aaron Sorkin

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Inception – Christopher Nolan

ORIGINAL SCORE

The King’s Speech

ORIGINAL SONG

Tangled

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Toy Story 3

ART DIRECTION

The King’s Speech

CINEMATOGRAPHY

True Grit

COSTUME DESIGN

The King’s Speech

MAKEUP

The Wolfman

SOUND EDITING

Inception

SOUND MIXING

True Grit

VISUAL EFFECTS

Inception

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Inside Job

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Poster Girl

FILM EDITING

The Social Network

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

In a Better World

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Day & Night

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

God of Love

DIRECTING

The King’s Speech – Tom Hooper

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Black Swan – Natalie Portman

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The King’s Speech – Colin Firth

MOTION PICTURE

The King’s Speech